How My Girlfriends and I Lose our Shirts Betting On Sports

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There are a lot of similarities between betting on sports and the stock market. Both can be risky propositions, and making money is not always easy, but the goal in sports betting and stocks is to win (either by beating the market, or beating the bookie).

In the stock market, common mistakes can include ?speculating instead of investing? and ?using too much leverage?. A savvy bettor who knows the ins and outs of wagering and avoids common errors can certainly pull it off.

Precise play and using percentages in your favor is a great strategy, but only when you take common mistakes out of the equation.

Your strategy, analysis, and luck will ultimately determine your success, avoiding these mistakes will not only make you a better handicapper, but hopefully give you enough of an edge to turn losing bets into profitable ones.

1. Losing track of which team is better

It is highly fashionable for a bettor to analyze every statistical and psychological factor imaginable. Unfortunately, they often forget one basic fact; the best team is usually going to win. Not surprisingly, those better teams often cover the spread as well. That doesn?t mean you won?t cover some point spreads over the course of the year with inferior teams, but good teams win, and win handily.

Historically speaking, most teams with a winning record during a particular season also had a winning record against the spread for the year. Conversely, teams with a losing record generally didn?t cover the line too often.

2. Betting with your heart instead of your brain

If you ever want to?make money?betting on sports, you need to be sure you aren?t wagering as a fan. Your like or dislike for a certain player or team cannot enter into your thinking. In general, betting on or against your favorite team is going to leave you in a bad mood 75% of the time? How? If you bet on them and they lose, you will be mad that you lost money. If you bet against them, you are going to either be upset that they lost or upset that they won and cost you money. That leaves you a mere 25% chance of having a great day, and that is if you have bet on them and they won.

3. Chasing longshots

If you want to chase longshots, stick to horse racing. Yes, the payoff can be sweet if youwager?on that 14-point NFL or NBA underdog to win outright, but making this a regular part of your wagering tactics doesn?t make much sense. Occasional longshot wagers are fine, but remember, there is a reason they are such a huge underdog, and it?s not like you know something that the oddsmakers don?t.

4. Relying too much on trends

Just like with the stock market, past results don?t mean much in sports either. A historical trend between two teams can be an interesting side note, but it rarely has much to do with the current contest. So Team X has covered the spread against Team Y the last six times they have played; so what? Each game needs to be analyzed based on its own merit, taking only current player and team ability into account.

5. Getting too excited over a recent performance

Regardless of the sport, there is one truth that every smart bettor should keep in mind; a team is never as good as they look in victory, and never as bad as they look in defeat. Basically, a single exceptionally great or disastrously poor game shouldn?t detract from a team?s overall body of work. A team that gets hammered one game shouldn?t necessarily be written off for the next game. Not to mention that the line will adjust to that poor performance, making it more advantageous to wager on a team coming off a poor showing.

6. Becoming too enamored with offense

We have all heard the phrase ?Defense wins championships.? It is as true in sports betting as it is in the individual sport itself. For example, you wager on a basketball team and they can?t seem to make a bucket. If they are a solid defensive team, they can hang around until the offense wakes up. In baseball, teams that pitch well and play good defense will always be a few swings away from covering your?bet. It is true with every sport, yet bettors get hooked on teams that can light up the scoreboard. Well, what happens when they don?t?

7. Not shopping for lines

It is crucial to have multiple places to shop for lines. Lines can vary greatly from one oddsmaker to the next, so why not get as many points as you can with your selection? On the internet it?s as simple as having accounts with several sportsbooks. It doesn?t cost you anything to open an account, and there are several 3rd party payment processors that make it easier to move money around. If you?re in Las Vegas, it?s as simple as walking to the next casino or using an online service like VegasInsider.com or Covers.com to see which casino is offering the best line. A 6.5 versus 7.0 spread is HUGE, and can dramatically change your probability.

Speaking of lines?

8. Chasing line movement

This is all too common with inexperienced bettors. A line moves from 3 to 5 and the bettor jumps all over those 5 points, thinking it is a steal. That may be the case, but let me explain something. You are not betting against the bookmaker, you are betting against other bettors. Whoever you are placing your bet with has no interest in whether you win or lose. His take is the extra 10% (this number can vary) that you put up to place your bet. If a line is made at say 3 points, and 75% of bettors are betting on the favorite, the line will be moved to force people to bet the other side. Obviously, this can backfire if the outcome falls above 3 and below 5, but all they are trying to do is even out the betting and collect 10% from everyone.

9. Falling for ?free? picks

You have seen those ads in the back of the newspaper and on the internet, offering free sports picks. The regular cost of an expert pick with them is $24.99, but they are giving you a one-time complimentary pick; how wonderful right? Not so fast! Yes, you will get a free pick, but let me tell you how it works. They pick a random game and give 50% of the people who click or call one side, and the other 50% receive the other team. So, if 500 people take advantage of this free pick, 250 have scored. Maybe 100-150 of those will be so impressed that they will pay the $24.99 for another pick.

Of course, the same 50/50 tactic is used for that game, so 50-75 people are getting the next winner, and so on. A few lucky people will make a fortune, but at $24.99 each, you know who the real winner is.

10. Betting because you are bored

If you are that bored, read a book before throwing good money out the window. I get it; there is a nationally televised game and you want to sit down and enjoy the game with a six-pack, while also making a few bucks. That is a great idea, but unless you have put in the time to analyze the matchup, just like you would for other games, then it makes no sense to place a ?guess bet? on it. If you absolutely must have some action on the game, make a recreational bet that equates to about a quarter of your normal wager amount.

11. Wagering with a hangover

It has happened to everyone, so don?t feel bad. You stay out a bit too late enjoying some adult beverages with the boys and get home at about 3 a.m. Because of this, you wake up the next day about an hour before games are starting and have a splitting headache. Without a bit of analysis or research, you throw down your hard earned money and hope for the best. There is no need for it. The matchups and schedules for every sport are laid out well in advance, so there is no excuse for not having done your homework, then betting blind.

12. Chasing lost money

If you lose one bet, just double up on the next one right? If you lose again, just double it once more, and keep doubling until you win, right? Wrong! Trust me, if you get into a losing streak, you will run out of money before you run out of chances to double up. Each bet needs to be considered on its own merit, without any thought to past bets. Wagering on sports is often a lifetime investment and should be viewed on a larger scale and not on a wager by wager basis. A savvy (and successful) bettor has maturity, discipline, and a short memory.

13. Worrying too much about injuries

Some people base their entire betting strategy around injuries. That isn?t to say that an injury to a star isn?t important, because it certainly is, but the oddsmakers know the importance as well, and have already adjusted the line to reflect this. Plus, it?s not like teams play one guy short; there is always someone to replace that player, and he often turns out to be pretty good in his own right. Historically, when a line moves due to a key injury, the team that suffered the injury ends up covering the spread.

14. Placing too much emphasis on the psychological aspect of the game

Sit down and watch a few games in any sport and you will hear some common phrases uttered. ?Guy X is playing his old team and is really motivated.? ?Team Y is playing the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year and will be giving an extra effort.? It?s all rubbish. Effort and motivation count for something, but nothing beats pure talent. So what if a team lost by 30 points to their opponent last year. Are they really out for revenge? Perhaps the team that won last year is motivated to do it again and prove it wasn?t a fluke.

15. Wagering too much on a single game

A professional sports bettor wagers about the same amount on each game, give or take 10%. There is no ?lock of the day? in real-life sports wagering. You either like a game or you don?t. Losing a large amount on a single game will lead to a steady bet increase across the board, which can lead to a missed mortgage payment.

16. Not betting enough games

This probably doesn?t apply to a novice gambler, but for anyone who knows what they are doing, this makes perfect sense. If you have a system for handicapping and analysis, and you know it works, then betting just a few games leaves you more susceptible to luck. Weather changes, a few freak bounces and lucky plays here and there and you are staring at a bad day. If your analysis gives you seven games that you really like, by all means play them all. Just like the stock market, diversification is key to long term success.

17. Desperation wagering

This is the most dangerous type of wagering. The rent or mortgage is due, or your car needs $2,000 worth of repairs, so you turn to sports wagering to make ends meet. Sure, you may have a great day and pull it off. However, more likely is that you will wager on games that you haven?t properly analyzed, turning your $2,000 debt into a $4,000 debt.

18. Wagering beyond your means

Just like when you walk into a casino to play the slots or into the racetrack to play the ponies; wager what you can afford to lose. It may seem self-defeating, but assume you are going to lose. Hypothetically, if you were to lose every bet you make today, would it cause financial distress? Some people will bet two or three sports at a time and make 15 small wagers, with the thinking that they can?t possibly all lose. Unfortunately, they can all lose.

19. Focusing on exotic wagers

Horse racing has the Pick 5, Pick 6 and Superfecta, and sports wagering has teasers, parlays and futures. What do they have in common? A smart bettor avoids all of them. An occasional exotic play is alright, but since most of these wagers come down to guessing and luck, they are best left for others. Coincidentally in horse racing these are the types of wagers where the track get?s the highest take-out, in other words they make the most money.

20. Wagering on too many sports

Sports betting has more to do with ego than most people imagine, and I completely understand. We want to seem like an expert on every sport, so we spray wagers across a wide variety of contests. Sadly, no one is an expert on every sport. It is about making money, so keep track of your wagers and figure out which sports you excel at and which give you trouble. Concentrating on sports where you have proven success is just one more tip to bettering your chances at a fat bankroll.

Work Hard. Win Big!

So, what does this all mean? It means that if wagering on sports is considered merely ?entertainment? or ?fun? in your life, then you probably won?t be successful at it over the long haul. If that type of random entertainment appeals to you, and you can afford to lose, then by all means go for it. However, if you are serious about making money by wagering on sports, you have to view it as a job.

Investing the proper time and research is the first major key. And there are no guarantees in gambling, like everything in life. But avoiding the mistakes we?ve brought to light in this report will definitely increase your odds of making a substantial profit (and have some fun in the process).

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